AUSTIN, Texas — We've had not only one of the warmest Februarys on record, we've also had a drier February than normal at Camp Mabry, with only one hundredth of an inch shy of one inch of rain – exactly one inch below average.
According to the latest climate data from the Climate Prediction Center, we're tracking what could be more of the same, especially as we shift from an under-impressing El Niño, to what is known as ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning that conditions could be about average locally.
However, there are a few kinks within that.
Temperature
While February wound up being well above-average temperature-wise, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting temperatures being similar to average for most of Texas. However, it is important to note that the average temperature in March at Camp Mabry is around five and a half degrees warmer than February, and it's a roughly seven-degree increase in March from February at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Additionally, the CPC gave a similar temperature forecast to start February, so make of that what you will.
What's more is that we're starting March with above-average highs, with highs in the upper 70s to even lower 80s by the middle parts of next week, so we're already starting Meteorological Spring on a warm note.
Precipitation
The latest precipitation outlook from the CPC also highlights the shift to ENSO-neutral conditions. While some areas of the Coastal Plains are looking at precipitation that's similar to average, there are areas of the Hill Country that are looking at a higher likelihood of below-average precipitation, which is unfortunate for an area that – while drought conditions have improved from a year ago – still has severe to extreme drought in spots.
However, as we head into next week, although we remain warmer than average, there is a 20 to 30% chance of showers and storms from Monday through Friday. However, we're tracking minimal help to the drought situation, especially west of Interstate 35.
But any downpour in the right spot can be helpful to the drought.
Conclusion
While we are tracking a similar temperature forecast to this past month, it's important to note that we expect to be warmer on average than the previous month, especially with the Spring Equinox on March 19 at 11:06 p.m.
Not only do we expect to be warmer due to the higher averages, we may be drier than average in spots, which may not help the drought situation but may signal a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions for the spring.
Stick with KVUE for the latest on your forecast.
