FORT WORTH, Texas — A weekend in Dallas-Fort Worth that saw two 70-degree days is going to transition to temperatures in the teens by week’s end -- and that will give Texas’ energy grid its first major test.
Doug Lewin, an energy consultant leading Stoic Energy, say he’s about 70-80% confident the lights will stay on. The biggest reason is, unlike last year, the entire state won’t be below freezing, the lower temperatures won’t last as long and it won’t be as cold as it was in 2021.
“If you were telling me that [it would be the same weather], my confidence would be at like a one or a two because we have not done enough to stop outages in an exact repeat, but this is not an exact repeat,” Lewin said.
Interim ERCOT CEO Brad Jones was in Dallas last week for an energy forum. A year after the devastating winter storm that killed at least 246 Texans, Jones says power plants have reached new standards.
“We are very ready. We have spent the last 12 months making sure that all of the generators are ready to operate,” he said. “They’ve improved their weatherization, made sure they have more insulation on their equipment, and we’ve gone out and inspected them to make sure they’ve done that.”
It’s natural gas providers, not power plants, that worry Lewin because neither Gov. Greg Abbott, nor state lawmakers or the Railroad Commission of Texas have forced them to change.
“There are no winterization rules in place,” Lewin said. “There is no standard out there, so we have seen freezing cause reductions in gas supply.”
In January, Bloomberg News reported natural gas production in the Permian Basin dropped significantly during days with cold weather.
“It does concern me,” Jones said. “It shows we still have more work to be done on the weatherization of our natural gas fleet.”
Beyond supply, demand is a real issue. Before last year, statewide demand had never passed 67 gigawatts. It’s estimated if the grid stayed on through the winter storm demand would have hit 77.
This week, ERCOT is projecting 73 gigawatts of demand at 8 a.m. Friday.
“That’s really interesting where there would be like zero years ever where we get above 70 and then there’s two years in a row where we get above 70,” Lewin said. “You’ve got off the chart demand, not enough gas supply, low wind, sun isn’t up yet. That’s the most perfect or imperfect storm possible.”
This week isn’t last year, but it will be a test of what’s working.
“Focus on the things you can control. Make sure you cover up the faucets on the outside of your home, wrap those things really well,” Lewin said. “Nobody should panic but everybody should be prepared.”