AUSTIN, Texas — Texans need to start preparing for a future that his hotter, drier and "fraught with more water extremes," according to researchers at the University of Texas.
And it gets worse: They say these droughts could be unlike anything Texas has seen in the last 1,000 years.
The study explores what future action could look like for different water stakeholders across the state, such as municipal water suppliers to farmers and ranchers. And they say preparation won't be a "one-size-fits-all" solution.
Professor Jay Banner with the Jackson School of Geosciences said that although the state is used to dealing with water issues caused by drought and floods that its climate is known for, climate change is expected to intensify these extremes.
“We’re in for some major challenges in the 21st century. We’re in for unprecedented drought risk,” said Banner. “Realizing how many stakeholders that have input and manage water in Texas – which, at the end of the day, is all of us – was the impetus for this study.”
As of today, water planning in Texas is centered on sustaining conditions comparable to the worst drought in the state's history. That was a six-year dry spell in the 1950s.
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However, according to climate model projections, Texas droughts by the end of the century could be much more extreme. Researchers say they could even exceed the 10-year "megadroughts" that have hit the state in ancient history, as evidenced by natural records such as tree rings and cave formations dating back thousands of years.
Another challenge thrown in the mix of water management during extreme drought is the state's growing population and shifting demographics. According to the university, the Texas population is expected to grow from 29.5 million to 51 million by 2070, with most of those people residing in urban areas.
The study was performed by members of the Texas Water Research Network, a water research group at UT’s Environmental Science Institute. The lead author is John Nielsen-Gammon, the state climatologist and a Texas A&M University professor.
“All across the state, people have different needs,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Researchers need to know what to look for, and stakeholders need to know what’s already out there and make use of it.”
To help stakeholders prepare, researchers identified four critical groups: agricultural producers, large surface-water suppliers, small groundwater water districts and regional water planning districts. Their report lays out data sources, the questions they can help answer and potential avenues for research that could assist in making more informed planning decisions.
To read the full study, click here.
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