AUSTIN, Texas — This week, the Texas Democratic Party hosted its state convention in Dallas, and the House Committee investigating the Robb Elementary School shooting is set to release its preliminary report onSunday afternoon.
Three things to know in Texas politics
1. House committee to release video from Uvalde
The Texas House Committee investigating the Robb Elementary School shooting is set to release its preliminary report about what happened that day and video from inside the school.
RELATED: Uvalde families hear preliminary report as committee releases findings detailing 'systemic failures'
Committee Chair State Rep. Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) first announced plans to release the report and video on Twitter on Tuesday. That same day, KVUE News reached the point in our reporting on the Uvalde mass shooting where we were prepared to show the public video from inside Robb Elementary School. Sunday's hearing starts at 1:30 p.m. in Uvalde.
2. Hobby School of Public Affairs poll shows tight November races
Democrats are gaining on Republicans ahead on the November election. A new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston shows the top races are within single digits. In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott's lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke has narrowed to 5 points among registered voters.
But, interestingly, Abbott's lead grows when those voters are asked about the likelihood of them casting ballots in November. Among voters who say they are "almost certain" to cast ballots, Abbott leads O'Rourke by 8 points.
That's also the case in the race for lieutenant governor. Republican incumbent Dan Patrick leads democratic challenger Mike Collier by just 4 points among registered voters, but by 8 points among almost certain voters. And in the race for attorney general, Republican Ken Paxton's lead over Democrat Rochelle Garza is just 3 points among registered voters, but grows to 9 points among Texans who self-identify as almost certain to vote.
3. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton suing Biden administration over abortion rights
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the Biden administration over steps it's taking to support abortion access. With guidance from President Joe Biden, Health and Human Services issued guidance to health care providers reminding doctors they're protected under federal law to perform abortions as part of emergency treatment. Paxton argues federal law does not offer that protection.
Scott Braddock, editor of Quorum Report, weighs in on Texas Democratic Convention
This week, the Texas Democratic Party hosted its state convention in Dallas. Members of the party decided their legislative agenda, platform and plan to try to turn Texas blue. Political analyst and editor of Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report Scott Braddock talked with KVUE from Dallas about the convention.
Ashley Goudeau: First tell us what happens at these conventions.
Scott Braddock: "You know, this is where the activists show up: you know, the people who are the most engaged voters and most engaged activists within the party at the Republican Party of Texas and at the Democratic Party of Texas. It's not your average Democratic voter. It's the person who's a precinct chair, who's a delegate, you know, a person who's involved in some progressive organizations, that sort of stuff.
They get together, they talk about what they should be standing for as Democrats. They'll, you know, they'll talk about their platform. They'll elect chairman. And they will also hear from their standard bearers, including Beto O'Rourke. And you've got the folks who are running for lieutenant governor, attorney general as well will be thrilling the crowd."
Goudeau: The Democratic Party has not been able to secure a statewide seat in really decades, and we saw the impact of that for sure during the 87th legislative session. From abortion to guns, the Republican Party has had the most conservative session in recent history. They really were able to do a lot of the things that they've said they wanted to do for a long time. So it would seem most of the legislative priorities for Democrats are undoing legislation that was recently passed. How realistic is that, though?
Braddock: "It's a stretch to think that Democrats could get there. First of all, at the legislative level, Ashley, there's no chance of Democrats this year taking a majority in the House or the Senate. Of course, you know that because of redistricting that was completed in the last year. At the statewide level, that's where things could get more interesting. But of course, you know, let's say just for sake of discussion, Beto O'Rourke was able to win the governor's office. The kind of thing that might happen is immediately when he becomes governor, if he was sworn in, the Legislature might move to try to remove some of his powers, which they can do by statute. And of course, it would just be a standoff on a lot of different things, right? It might be that the Legislature would pass a lot of very conservative legislation and then Gov. O'Rourke would veto it and it would lead to real gridlock in Austin."
Goudeau: Would be interesting. OK, so other than the goal of undoing some of the policies that have passed, because that's really what a lot of Democrats right now are running on, what new things do Texas Democrats want to accomplish?
Braddock: "You know, there are various progressive goals that are out there. Of course, if you ask especially young Democrats, they want to focus in on things like fighting climate change, activism in favor of standing up for transgender youth and things like that. But look, the campaign messages that the Democrats are focusing in on do have to do with what you were talking about before, which is sort of battling back against Republicans. And the things that might work for Democrats in this campaign cycle include, you know, lessening restrictions on abortions, more restrictions on guns and doing more to shore up the electricity grid, which, of course, is once again in the headlines and a big concern."
Goudeau: The Republican Party, though, really trying to expand its footprint in South Texas and they've been somewhat successful already flipping that congressional seat down in the Valley. How are Democrats going to combat that?
Braddock: "You know, they can't take any part of the state for granted. Look, the rural votes down in the Valley, I think are trending toward the Republicans. But look, if you look around the state, I think people started sort of get this wrong. They think that means that Hispanics all over the place are starting to vote for Republicans and it's just not true. The vast majority of Hispanics in Texas live in places like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, El Paso; it's not in the four counties in the Valley. They might be trending more Republican down there, but those folks in the big cities, they're still voting for Democrats. So they can't take any of these folks for granted. And that's, you know, when you travel down to the Valley, which I've done a few times this year, to cover some of these races, that's what you hear from them a lot. Don't take us for granted. One of the things I heard over and over again when I was in McAllen, for example, was just the fact that, even some Democratic folks or people who are open to voting for Democrats there, they would say, 'Look, we like the fact that Greg Abbott comes here,' and he does go there a lot. They like the attention."
Goudeau: He does go there a lot because the border obviously is a big topic for him right now as well as the Republican Party. What are the Democrats saying there at the convention about border and border policies?
Braddock: "You know, it's one of those things that Democrats have a real hard time talking about. It's certainly not one of the first things that they want to talk about, but they do have some things to say when they're pushed about it, which is that there should be comprehensive immigration reform, which, of course, has been a bipartisan effort in the past. Former governor and President George W. Bush wanted to get that done, but members of his own party resisted on that. The fact is that you see the governor going back to the border over and over and over again because it's something that simply works for Republican politics in this state. It is the thing that animates the base of the Republican Party the most, and it's not close. The only thing that I remember in recent memory that was anywhere even close to it was the mask mandate issues and issues surrounding mandatory vaccinations. That got the base fired up, but it was still the case that immigration, border security was number one."
Goudeau: You cannot deny, though, that there is some momentum developing for the Democrats from recent polls to gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke's latest fundraising numbers, which were mighty, mighty good. How can Democrats capitalize, though, on that opportunity?
Braddock: "You know, we haven't seen Democrats with resources in Texas in quite some time. The closest thing we had to it would have been in 2018 when O'Rourke was running for the U.S. Senate. And you had lots of competitive races around the state, at the state level and congressional level where tens of millions of dollars were spent. You know, there's going to be a lot of advertising that we see from both sides. Gov. Abbott has already said he's going to spend at least $20 million or so on television, radio and digital advertising. But both O'Rourke and Abbott are also going to be doing something that Democrats refused to do in 2020. Remember, Ashley, they wouldn't knock doors. They wouldn't go block-walk and talk to voters out in neighborhoods. Both sides are going to be doing that now and both are going to have robust field operations, hiring lots of people to go around the state, talking to folks about why they should vote for either Greg Abbott or Beto O'Rourke. It's going to be pretty interesting."
Goudeau: Yes, it certainly will be interesting to see. What do you really see, though, Scott, for the future of the Democratic Party in Texas?
Braddock: "You know, I think this convention might help shed some light on that, and this election will certainly help shed some light on that. There's always a debate within both parties about just how much the party and the candidates ought to adhere to a certain ideology. For Democrats, going too far to the left in this state doesn't seem to work. We've seen that in the past and we have seen folks come closer. Remember in 2018, when O'Rourke was running before, that was when he had talked in a different way about the Second Amendment and firearms, for example. It was only when he ran for president that he went further to the left and flamed out even within the Democratic nominating contest for president. And so, you know, look, it will tell us a lot about where this party is headed based on what kind of success they have or not over the next few months."
You can keep up with Braddock and his insights on the convention on Quorum Report and Twitter.
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