AUSTIN, Texas — In this week's edition of Texas This Week, James Henson, Ph.D., director of The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, discusses the latest poll that shows Gov. Greg Abbott's lead over democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke has narrowed to six points.
Three things to know in Texas politics
ALERRT report on Robb Elementary School shooting shows failures
On Wednesday, State Rep. Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock), chair of the Texas House Investigation Committee on the Robb Elementary School Shooting, sent a notice of deposition to Uvalde County Sheriff Ruben Nolasco, who Burrows says had refused to testify.
The next day, Nolasco responded, saying he thought it was "untimely" to participate but added he will testify via Zoom at the committee's next hearing – but only to the extent it doesn't jeopardize the criminal investigation being conducted by the FBI and Texas Rangers. The next hearing is on Monday, July 11.
This all comes as the public is learning more about law enforcement failures in the shooting that left 19 students and two teachers dead. A new report from Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training (ALERRT) spells out how law enforcement agencies handled the May 24 shooting.
According to the report, a Uvalde officer armed with a rifle had sights on the shooter before he went inside Robb Elementary but did not fire because he was waiting for permission from his supervisor. That permission either never came or he didn't hear it. The report states that was a key moment when the gunman could have been stopped, but also notes the gunman was outside of the range officers are trained to shoot at.
The report also states after several officers were met with gunfire when they tried to enter the classroom where the gunman was, their response seemed to lose momentum. The report states officers could have tried to go into the classroom through outside windows or even by ripping out sheetrock. It repeated what state police leaders have said, that the officers had ample firepower and protection, including tear gas canisters.
It remains unclear why officers waited an hour and 10 minutes to enter the classroom. The mayor of Uvalde is disputing the report that an officer missed the chance to stop the gunman, saying no Uvalde officer saw the shooter before he went into the school. But the team at ALERRT says they stand by their report.
Gov. Abbott issues executive order on border security
Gov. Greg Abbott is taking executive action to address migrants entering Texas unlawfully at the Mexico border. On Thursday, he issued an executive order authorizing the Texas National Guard and Texas Department of Public Safety to apprehend migrants who cross the border in between ports of entry and take them to a port on the border.
Opponents call the move a political stunt that violates civil rights, and the White House is condemning the order.
Meanwhile, reporters with ProPublica and The Texas Tribune learned the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Operation Lone Star, the governor's multibillion-dollar border initiative, for civil rights violations.
Texas-based abortion clinic moving to New Mexico
Texas-based abortion provider Whole Women's Health is moving its abortion operations to New Mexico. The group has clinics in Austin and several other cities across the state, but with abortion bans taking effect after the U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, sending abortion rights back to the states, it will no longer be able to continue its work in Texas. New Mexico is the closest state that will still allow some level of abortion access.
James Henson, Ph.D., on latest poll of Texas voters
As we inch closer to the November election, a new poll from The Texas Tribune/The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin is giving new insights on where Texas voters stand. James Henson, Ph.D., director of The Texas Politics Project, joined KVUE to talk about the results.
Ashley Goudeau: First, briefly lay out for us the methodology behind this poll.
Henson: "We polled 1,200 registered voters using a tried-and-true method using the internet that provides us a really strong random sample. We were in the field collecting data from June 16 through the 24, which means that we caught much of the discussion and the controversy over the shootings in Uvalde, but collected data up until the day that the Dobbs decision on abortion was handed down."
Goudeau: Now, perhaps the biggest headline, Gov. Greg Abbott's lead against Democratic opponent Beto O'Rourke is shrinking. Tell us where voters stand.
Henson: "Yeah, we had Greg Abbott with 45% of registered voters, Beto O'Rourke with 39%, about 10% undecided, and then about 6% distributed among third-party candidates or people that are just kind of waiting for someone else. So a six-point lead for Gov. Abbott, which is within the range that we've seen this race in the last six or eight weeks – we were in the field with a poll in April, and we had this race at about 10 points. There have been several polls now between roughly five and eight or nine in the last few weeks. So I think we fell within that pattern."
Goudeau: Are there other results from the poll that give you some insight on why Gov. Abbott's lead could possibly be shrinking?
Henson: "Well, I mean, I think some of it is in the poll and some of it is just sort of in the ether. In the poll, one of the things that we saw that really recurred throughout this particular poll is that Texans are in an incredibly negative mood about incumbents, about economic conditions, about the direction of the state. I think one of the most telling results in this poll is that when we asked Texans whether they thought the state was, you know, headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, the wrong track number was 59%, which is as high as we've seen it since we started doing this poll in 2008. So there's an enormous amount of negative energy out there. Virtually everybody's job approval ratings from Joe Biden down to the Texas Legislature and to Congress, everybody's job approval ratings were down in this poll. So I think there is a real simmering dissatisfaction out there that is frankly kind of reaching a boil. And I think that it hurt all incumbents."
Goudeau: In addition to the November races, your team also asked Texas voters about several other issues. One of the big issues, of course, that will be before the Legislature in 2023 is school safety. And in the wake of the Robb Elementary School shooting, there is a call for gun reform. Your team talked to voters about that. One of the results that I thought was really interesting is you asked which factor is most to blame for the recent mass shootings in the U.S.? What did the respondents say?
Henson: "Well, you know, we gave respondents a choice of several factors, eight or nine factors. The most common response is that people blame the current gun laws. About a quarter of Texans said that current gun laws were the factor most to blame, but coming in fairly close at 20% was failures in the mental health system. So, you know, as with so many poll results that you and I have talked about over the years, Ashley, you have to look at the differences between the two major parties to kind of sort this out. Among Democrats, not surprisingly, the overwhelming, you know, the cause overwhelmingly cited as the most important factor are current gun laws. Half of Democrats say that's the main factor. Republicans look very different. About a quarter of Republicans say that this is failures, you know, that the main cause is failures in the mental health system. Twenty-one percent then say unstable family situations. So this is something that we see in when we probe these attitudes fairly consistently. Democrats are inclined to see gun laws as the main factor here. Republicans are more inclined to see more personal factors like one's mental health or their family background, rather than directing their attention to to gun laws and the presence of guns."
Goudeau: There are some issues, though, where Republicans and Democrats do see a little more eye to eye. You asked voters about expanded background checks. This seems to be one of those things where the both sides can somewhat agree.
Henson: "Yeah, one of the interesting aspects of the gun issue and, you know, in some ways one of the more frustrating, is that there is a lot of public support for some of the more moderate measures in the realm of gun safety. So as you mentioned, we found majority support among Texans for more comprehensive background checks and for so-called red flag laws, which would allow for judicial proceedings that would remove guns from the possession of people that are deemed to be a risk to themselves or to others. What you see there is overwhelming support among Democrats, strong support among independents. And while you find support among Republicans, there's still substantial opposition. You know, in many cases on these issues it's minority opposition, but it's a nontrivial share of Republicans, and it's the most conservative Republicans that are driving party politics inside the Republican Party."
Ashley Goudeau: You've been doing this for some time now, and I don't think many results surprise you. But was there anything in this poll that kind of made you scratch your head a little bit?
Henson: "Well, it surprised me a little, but I think one of the things that I really noticed in this poll, because I think it's a little bit of a signal, is just how much John Cornyn's job approval ratings dropped. Sen. Cornyn's approval ratings just cratered. He went from about, you know, negative seven in his favor in his job ratings, which meant that, you know, 7% in April – 7% more people in April disapproved of the job he was doing than approved of it. In June, after he took leadership on the gun issue in the Senate and in Washington, D.C., his job approval rating is is north of negative 20. He lost support among all groups. His job disapproval rating among Republicans doubled. And I think it's it's really telling about where we are institutionally that Cornyn was to some degree lauded for taking a leadership role and finding a way to compromise on a bill that nobody was fully satisfied with, but that demonstrated a certain amount of institutional leadership, whether you were satisfied with the bill or not. He got a lot of press coverage and I think a lot of his colleagues appreciated it. He got no appreciation in Texas. His job approval ratings went down precipitously among Republicans and noticeably among independents, and to the extent that there was room, also among Democrats. And it's a real commentary, I think, on where we are at this moment with, you know, the traditional process of compromise that has driven Congress."
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