AUSTIN, Texas — Independent voters may make a bigger impact on this year's election than ones in the past, according to political experts.
Joshua Blank, the research director for The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said his group has been looking into independent voters and said because they can be unpredictable, there's a larger focus on securing their votes this year than in the years before.
"Because when Republicans regularly win the state by 10 points or more, the views of people in the middle are not necessarily as consequential. As we're seeing both parties become at least, you know, close to parity in terms of their ability to turn out their own voters, the preferences of independents become significantly more important," Blank said.
Blank said independents in Texas have historically tended to favor Republican candidates.
"The one exception to that was in 2018, they preferred Beto O'Rourke over Ted Cruz. But they still prefer the Republican candidates for governor, attorney general, lieutenant governor, Congress," Blank said. "This cycle in our polling – and I think you're seeing this in other polling as well – independents prefer the Democratic candidates up and down the ballot."
He said this isn't a permanent shift, but it will shift the tone of the campaigns this year. He said Republican campaigns have typically focused on mobilizing Republicans, but things are different this time.
"This time you're seeing a lot more moderate communication, a lot more measured tones and a lot more reaching out, I think, from Republican candidates than you've seen in the past, given the fact that, I think, to me, it says that they view this as much more competitive," Blank said.
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