DALLAS — How far right will Texas go? The outcome of the May 28 runoff election will determine the political direction that Texas takes in the next few years.
More than a half-dozen Republican incumbents have been forced into runoffs by challengers from the farther right flank of the GOP.
The most-watched race statewide will be House Speaker Dade Phelan’s re-election campaign in southeast Texas. Phelan, one of the state’s top leaders who is from Beaumont, finished second on Super Tuesday behind David Covey. Phelan won 14,574 votes to Covey’s 15,589.
Phelan has said there is a "moral rot" in the Republican Party of Texas. He was targeted by the far right for impeaching Attorney General Ken Paxton on corruption charges and refusing to pass school vouchers, a priority for Governor Abbott. Still, the governor has not endorsed in this race. Covey is a consultant for the oil and gas industry.
Both campaigns have accused the other for not agreeing to debate leading up to next Tuesday’s election.
But if Phelan wins the runoff, some Republican lawmakers tell WFAA that he would be re-elected Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives.
If Covey defeats Phelan on Tuesday, it would be the first time in a half century that a sitting Speaker of the House has lost re-election. Members of the House would also have to elect a new speaker which would likely make priorities in the next legislative session much more uncertain.
Besides Phelan v. Covey, candidates from the right have also forced six other Republican incumbents from the Texas House of Representatives into runoffs.
Like Phelan, they are also targeted for either voting to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton or voting against school vouchers.
State Rep. DeWayne Burns, R-Cleburne, finished second on Super Tuesday with 41-percent of the vote compared to his Republican challenger, Helen Kerwin, who won 48-percent of the vote.
Republican state Rep. Frederick Frazier from McKinney finished second with 32-percent of the vote behind Keresa Richardson forcing a runoff election.
State Rep. Justin Holland, R-Rockwall, was targeted for casting a committee vote to raise the age to purchase a long gun from 18 to 21 after hearing emotional testimony from victims and survivors of Uvalde. His challenger, Katrina Pierson, won 202 more votes than Holland on Super Tuesday leading to what could be a close rematch next week.
State Rep. Stephanie Klick, a Republican incumbent from North Richland Hills and a nurse who authored the state’s medical marijuana laws, is also fighting for her political life. Klick fell just short of getting 50-percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. She won 48-percent of the vote. Fellow Republican David Lowe earned 46-percent of it.
State Rep. Lynn Stucky, a Denton Republican, fell behind Andy Hopper on Super Tuesday. They’ll face each other again next Tuesday.
And state Rep. Gary VanDeaver, a Republican from New Boston, in far northeast Texas, faced a close race against Chris Spencer but also could not break the 50-percent mark.
One Texas Republican in Congress was also forced into a runoff. U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a primary challenge from a high-profile social media influencer named Brandon Herrera. On YouTube, Herrera has more than three million subscribers and is known as “the AK Guy.”
Gonzales currently represents more than 700-miles of the Texas border with Mexico and was endorsed by Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
Gonzales finished Super Tuesday with 45-percent of the vote to Herrera’s 24-percent. Still, Gonzales is spending heavily to defend his incumbency.
Texas Democrats have 10 primary runoff elections across the state.
In the legislature, the only incumbent state lawmaker forced into a runoff is state Rep. Shawn Thierry, a Houston Democrat. She will face Lauren Ashely Simmons, an organizer, next week. Simmons won more of the vote than Thierry leading to what will likely be a close race to represent this district on Houston’s south side.
Runoff elections usually have far less turnout than regular primaries meaning every single vote counts and just one could swing an election and either break a political career or launch one. Because of that, candidates in this year’s runoff elections have spent millions of dollars on television and in direct mail to try to get voters to turnout.
Early voting is underway now through Friday, May 24. Election Day is Tuesday, May 28, the day after Memorial Day.