DALLAS — Texas and SMU are both in prime position to represent the Lone Star State in the College Football Playoff.
The scenario is simple: Win their conference championship games Saturday – Texas in the SEC against Georgia, SMU in the ACC against Clemson -- and both SMU and Texas will receive a first-round bye and begin their playoff journey in the quarterfinals.
As it stands now, Texas would be the No. 2 seed and SMU would be the No. 3 seed.
If Texas loses Saturday, they'll still be in the playoff -- we're almost 99.99% sure of that -- but get bumped back to the first-round. If SMU loses, the Ponies *should* still be in the playoff (in the first round, instead of a bye), but that would leave their fate in the hands of the committee.
In any case, let's look at the various scenarios and potential playoff matchups for Texas and SMU – including the possibility they face each other.
Current College Football Playoff bracket matchups
Based on Tuesday night's rankings, SMU and Texas would both receive a first-round bye. This is assuming for the fact that SMU and Texas win their conference championship games Saturday. Both wins are far from certain, though both teams are 2.5-point favorites.
If the current rankings hold, SMU in the quarterfinals would play the winner of Alabama-Notre Dame, and Texas would play the winner of Indiana-Georgia.
The quarterfinal games will be played at the Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl, Peach Bowl or Sugar Bowl. Matchups will be assigned to each bowl game "in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding."
A Texas-Georgia game, for example, might be played in the Sugar Bowl. An SMU-Notre Dame game might be played in the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl for neutrality's sake.
Here's where the bracket stands now:
What if either Texas or SMU lose their conference championship?
This is where things get complicated and nearly impossible to speculate.
It would be less convoluted if the playoff was seeded solely off the rankings; instead, it's the four highest-ranked conference champions getting the bye, and then the fifth conference champion getting in the bracket based of the rankings. SMU might be ranked below Penn State or Notre Dame, but they'll get the first-round bye as one of the top four conference champions.
In fact, let's start with SMU's realm of possibilities. If the 8th-ranked Mustangs lose to Clemson, they could theoretically drop several spots in the rankings – or out of the playoff entirely.
If they drop to, say, 10th, after a close loss to Clemson, SMU's playoff spot would still be safe. They'd just have to play a first-round game, likely as the 10th seed.
For Texas, there's not much a possibility they'll drop out of the playoff if they lose to Georgia again. But the Longhorns could tumble a few spots in the rankings, behind Penn State (or Oregon, if Penn State wins the Big 10) and Notre Dame.
In this scenario, Texas would play a first-round game as a potential 7th seed at their home stadium. Still, that's not as likely to happen, as that would, in effect, punish Texas for making their conference championship game (the same could be said for SMU). Texas dropping into the 5th or 6th seed seems more likely, should they lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
When could Texas and SMU play each other in the playoff?
So does this mean Texas and SMU could potentially face each other in the first round?
Sure.
But the shuffling of the rankings depending on the conference championship games is too difficult to speculate at the moment. The more straightforward path for a Texas vs. SMU meeting in the playoff would be the semifinals.
If Texas and SMU each get a bye and start in the quarterfinals – as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, respectively – then they'd meet in the semifinals, if they can each advance there.
Where would a Texas-SMU semifinal be played?
This is where it gets tricky.
According to the College Football Playoff rules, the No. 1 seed "will receive preferential bowl placement" for the semifinals. Under that guideline, top-seeded Oregon, if it advances to the semifinals, could get the inside track to play at in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium, as opposed to the Orange Bowl in Miami. AT&T Stadium is closer to Oregon (though still a long flight), and DFW is likely a more affordable trip for fans.
But if Oregon doesn't advance out of the quarterfinals, then Texas would be the remaining top seed. And in that scenario, there's really no reason a Texas-SMU matchup wouldn't be played at the AT&T Stadium.
Now, there's another scenario in play here: All of the above bracket projections get shuffled around, and Texas and SMU wind up playing each other in the national championship, which will be held Jan. 20 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
So buckle up. The next month and a half could be a wild ride.
