AUSTIN, Texas — We had a wetter and cooler January than normal, which is consistent with the El Niño pattern that we have been predicting. February looks to be similar to January, but there is a slight change that could have implications when it comes to the possibility of wintry precipitation.
Precipitation
As was the case in January, February looks to be wetter than average across the Lone Star State. It is important to note that February is the driest month on average at Camp Mabry, and there's only a slight chance of getting more rain than average.
The silver lining to this is that drought forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show areas in Central Texas will either see drought conditions improve or be eliminated altogether.
Additionally, we may have a few chances of rain over the next few days, especially as we head into next weekend. The rain chances are few and far between, but they are chances nonetheless.
Temperature
Recent history may suggest that February is the month where we receive the annual winter weather event in Central Texas, but February's temperature outlook shows much of Texas being closer to average temperature-wise. In fact, portions of the Red River Valley and sections of Texoma are more likely to have above-average temperatures during the month of February.
What's more is that February is warmer on average at Camp Mabry than January, as we continue to gain daylight hours leading up to the spring equinox and eventually the summer solstice. While we can't guarantee we'll avoid winter weather this month, the likelihood of wintry precipitation is lower this time around than previously, due to February averages being warmer than January.
Conclusion
Based on these outlooks, we can assume that while we are somewhat in an El Niño pattern during this month of February, we are headed more towards a spring that will include more normal El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. You should still stick with KVUE for the latest on your forecast.