AUSTIN, Texas — We've reached Thursday, which can only mean one thing: the new drought monitor has been released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
According to the latest data, much of Central Texas has regressed into "extreme" drought as we are in the midst of the driest stretch of the year on average.
At this point last week, we had areas along and west of Interstate 35 in "severe" drought as opposed to "extreme" drought. Additionally, portions of Blanco and Gillespie counties, including Fredericksburg and the City of Blanco, are now in an "exceptional" drought, which is the highest drought category.
What's more is the majority of the regression was inside the Highland Lakes system, and lake levels have trended in the wrong direction as a result. Lake Travis is now at 43% and Lake Buchanan is at 58%.
While we are officially in an El Niño pattern, its full effects will not be felt until this coming fall and winter when we expect it to be cooler and wetter than average, which should alleviate the drought situation, possibly entirely.
Another effect this drought has is an increased fire risk from the abnormally dry ground, combined with modest winds. We are expecting high to very high fire danger for Thursday, as well as Friday and into the weekend.
However, there might be some hope on the horizon. The subtropical area of high pressure known as a "heat dome" will shift off back to the west, toward the Four Corners region and the Rocky Mountains, weakening as it does. This could allow for a couple of weak disturbances to introduce mainly isolated rain chances, but a disturbance coming in for Sunday could bring in a 30% chance for isolated to widely scattered storms, which may not amount to much.
Stick with KVUE for the latest on this developing forecast.
In the meantime, your seven-day forecast is below.
