AUSTIN, Texas — It's not uncommon for shops and restaurants to begin their fall campaigns in late August. This week, the northeast is set to experience some of its earliest "fall" temperatures since the early 2000s, with morning lows in the 50s.
But while northern portions of the country will see autumn cooldowns much faster, Central Texas tends to play catch up until we are closer to the winter months.
When can we expect that crisp fall air in Austin?
Since Texans aren't as adept at handling the cold, we will use 60 degrees as our "fall-like" temperature mark. Camp Mabry, which goes back further than any other weather station in Austin, reports that our minimum temperatures fall below or equal to 60 degrees around Sept. 23.
The earliest it has ever happened was Aug. 22, 1901, and the latest was Oct. 19, 2007. So historical data tells us that Austin still has about a month before we start to see some cooler nights and early mornings.
For 50-degree minimums, we shave off another couple of weeks, with a median date of Oct. 14.
The median date for temperatures at or below 60 degrees follows very closely to the average timing of our first significant cold front. The most common timing for a 10-degree or more drop is from Sept. 17 to Sept. 23.
But what is the forecast for the 2024 fall, specifically?
The National Weather Service released its fall outlook on Aug. 19. In Austin, we teeter in the line of "likely above average" and "leaning above average" giving Central Texas a 40 to 60% chance of overall temperatures being warmer than normal.
If temperatures are warmer than normal, there will be one of two outcomes:
- High and low temperatures trend warmer than average overall, meaning fall temperatures will come later
- The cold events that do reach Texas aren't cold enough to counteract the overall average temperature throughout the fall
It's certainly possible our fall-like temperatures will show up right on time in late September but will be short-lived or not as significant as the warmer temperatures that linger late into the year.
So, if you are excited about getting your Pumpkin Spice Latte this week, you may be happier opting for the iced version for a few more weeks.
