CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea, Monday. Rafael is forecast to move northward and eventually get into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. To see a storm do this in November is not common. If we were to see a track like this in the middle of hurricane season, it would be alarming, but this is not the middle of hurricane season. Let's unpack...
Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday, strengthening to a 100 mph category 2 hurricane on Wednesday before making a landfall in Western Cuba. That landfall should lower the strength of Rafael entering the Gulf of Mexico.
The Gulf is still plenty warm and able to support a tropical system. Sea surface temperatures are currently in the middle to lower 80s. You need 80° or higher for tropical systems to flourish.
The farther north Rafael tracks, the more wind shear the storm will interact with. That should weaken the storm. You can see that reflected in the forecast cone with Rafael at a 60 mph tropical storm in the Northern Gulf by Saturday at noon.
Beyond Saturday, there is going to be some uncertainty on the future direction this storm takes. The European model is an outlier right now, but it's wanting to send the storm west, toward Mexico in the Southern Gulf over the weekend.
If Rafael does take a more westerly path in the gulf, it would likely be a very weak system being suppressed to the south by approaching cold fronts. This scenario could send in more tropical moisture to South Texas, raising rain chances into the weekend.
If Rafael takes a track more toward the Northern Gulf and can maintain tropical storm status, the Coastal Bend being on the west side of the system would be more susceptible to receiving drier air and less influence from the storm.
Until there is better congruency in the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast confidence for Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico will be low. Stay tuned.
Holt out
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
