AUSTIN, Texas — September 10th marks the historical peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and the tropics have been more active in the past two days than the entire month of August.
The current tropical system is Francine, which recently became a hurricane Tuesday evening.
Oftentimes when a tropical system forms in the Gulf of Mexico, the Texas coastline is a place to watch for potential landfall. However, our small stint of fall-like weather early this week will actually save the Texas coast from major impacts of Francine.
A cold front fell through Central Texas Sunday morning, blanketing a majority of the state in cool, dry air. Tropical storms stay away from conditions like that. In the model above, you can see a long swatch of dry air from Northern Mexico to the Carolinas- juxtaposed by deep moisture stretching through the Gulf.
In addition to the dry air, the wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere is elevated across Texas and the Deep South. Wind shear is another major hindrance to tropical development.
This wind shear will act as a steering mechanism for Francine, keeping the system out in the Gulf rather than skirting across the Texas coastline.
But just because there will be limited impacts to Texas, doesn't mean we will be devoid of impacts. The main concern for Texas will be an increased rip current risk along the Texas coastline along with up to 3 feet of storm surge.
In Austin, we aren't forecast much, if any, measurable rain from Francine.
Flood threats will increase more significantly upon landfall Wednesday for the southern half of Louisiana. Storm surge up to 10 feet will be possible.
While that dry air and shear will significantly choke the strength of Francine, which is only forecast to be a Category 1 or low-end Category 2, it will take time to do so. The Louisiana coastline and area inland are expected the see a widespread 4 to 6 in. of rain with localized totals up to 8 in.