TEXAS, USA — Editor's note: This blog is no longer updating.
The tropics appear to have finally awakened after a surprisingly below-average summer.
After monitoring four systems on Monday, the National Hurricane Center has reduced the number of potential tropical developments down to two in the Atlantic basin.
First, we're tracking a system that is located in the Central Tropical Atlantic. While there is a 60% chance of development over the next 48 hours, there is an increased 80% chance of development over the next five. This system could develop into something for the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast. If it becomes a named system, it would be called Danielle.
The area we were monitoring over the Caribbean has fallen apart and is now more of a tropical wave. While tropical development is now unlikely, we will still be watching the potential for this tropical moisture to move into the Gulf of Mexico and potentially increase our Labor Day Weekend rain chances.
In addition to the two previous disturbances, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring a third tropical wave with its center crossing the Cabo Verde islands that also has a 50% chance of development over the next five days. The development area includes the Cabo Verde islands.
Finally, we are monitoring an area in the middle of the Atlantic which would be more of a fish storm which continues to spin off at sea. It has a 70% of tropical development over the next 5 days.
This is an important time in hurricane season, as the peak usually takes place on Sept. 10. While many would say this season has not been as active as predicted, especially with the La Niña pattern, that doesn't mean the tropics won't awaken, as we may be seeing at this moment, especially with the lowered Saharan dust content along the Tropic of Cancer.
The tropics are a very important part of our forecasting here at KVUE, as these systems are typically responsible for most of the heavy rainfall we see during the summer into early fall. It is important that you stick with KVUE for the latest on the tropics.
In the meantime, your 7-day forecast is below:
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