AUSTIN, Texas — While much of the southeastern United States is dealing with heavy rains associated with Debby, including major flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast Georgia, we're always keeping an eye on the Atlantic for the latest tropical developments.
The latest data from the Climate Prediction Center shows that from Aug. 14-20, the highest probability of storm development will be north of the Lesser Antilles and just east of the Bahamas.
While this 40-60% probability would leave Central Texas likely out of the path, there's still a roughly 20-40% chance of a system developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on the track, that could put the Texas coastline in play again like it was with Hurricane Beryl.
Additionally, there is a 40-60% chance of development from Aug. 21-27 for the Central Atlantic, with the Climate Prediction Center essentially saying that Saharan dust won't be evident as it has through much of this summer.
However, the remainder of the areas in the Atlantic that are of interest to the United States, including all of the Gulf Coast, have a 20-40% chance of development during that same period.
This is an important development, especially since the latest update from the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science now shows only two fewer named storms (23) than previously forecast (25).
The new update has the same number of those becoming hurricanes (12) as well as major hurricanes (6). Additionally, CSU meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said that an above-normal hurricane season is expected.
"We believe the next two weeks will be quite active for Atlantic hurricane activity," Klotzbach said.
As always, stick with KVUE as we continue to track the tropics during what could surely be an active August and September.