AUSTIN, Texas — We saw our first winter-like cold front sweep across Austin this week. But technically, we did not see our first freeze.
Temperatures dwindled down to 40 and 37 degrees for our two major weather stations, Camp Mabry and Austin's airport, respectively.
Atmospheric conditions caused a freeze warning to be issued for the entire area Wednesday morning. Some might say this dip in temperatures was somewhat unprecedented, given how far south Austin lies on a map.
But the early cold snap might not be as uncommon as you initially think.
Below are lists of the earliest first freeze dates for both Camp Mabry and the airport. They include a number of October dates, the earliest being Oct. 25, 2005.
A freeze is classified by temperatures at the sight reaching 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Because temperatures only reached 37 and 40 degrees Wednesday morning, it does not count.
The average earliest freeze for Camp Mabry is Nov. 29. For the airport, it's Nov. 25. So it would not be out of the realm of possibility for temperatures to dip again before then.
Looking back at Camp Mabry's records of 124 years, while laying out the occurrence of freezes before or on Nov. 29, you'll note that the occurrence of freezes spike in greatest frequency from about Nov. 11 until Nov. 15.
There also tends to be a spike in early November, with three freezes in the past 124 years occurring on Nov. 2. Since Nov. 2 is this week and it's not likely for freezing temperatures to occur based on the current forecast, we can probably conclude that if there is an early freeze, there is better chance that it will happen in mid-November.
Outside of Austin, plenty of areas see their first freezes around the same time. Most Hill Country regions see their first freezes around Nov. 10.
Temperatures through the end of the week will be entering the above-average range and are expected to stay there for the first half of next week. So while there is a better chance for another early freeze in mid-November, every year is different and there is still a 50% chance our freeze could come between late November and even January.
The latest first freeze ever occurred on Jan. 15, 1989. Even 2022's first freeze did not occur until Jan. 2.