AUSTIN, Texas — As we deal with a potential for flooding heading into Mother's Day weekend, many are wondering how this storm will compare to the 2015 Memorial Day weekend floods that ravaged portions of Hays County along the Blanco River, near Wimberley and San Marcos.
Those storms, which took place between May 23 and 24, 2015, left a trail of devastation along the river and claimed the lives of 13 people, including a family of four.
Those storms were caused by prolonged heavy rainfall in areas that had already been saturated with rainfall from earlier in the month. Many areas were 2 to 4 inches above normal for the month of May leading up to the event, when a widespread 6 to 8 inches fell in areas of Blanco and Hays counties, as well as Bandera, Kerr, Kendall and Comal counties, just outside of the KVUE viewing area.
Some areas in southern Blanco County, near Blanco, received between 10 and 13 inches of rain.
The storms were part of what would become one of the wettest months in Texas, where some areas were estimated to have finished the month with over 20 inches of rain.
This resulted in a rapid rise of the Blanco and San Marcos rivers, with the Blanco River rising 36 feet within four hours, including a 20-foot rise during a one-hour time frame from 10:45 p.m. to 11:45 p.m.
The 2015 storms led to numerous high water rescues and, eventually, to massive property damage and 13 deaths.
Looking ahead, there are similarities and differences between the upcoming Mother's Day storms compared to the 2015 Wimberley floods.
First, rainfall totals could get between 3 to 6 inches in those same areas that had the heaviest rainfall during those floods, with isolated areas near 10 inches of rainfall over the course of the weekend.
Additionally, both systems will have a similar setup, with two sources of moisture bringing in the unstable air mass.
However, there is a stark difference between the upcoming system and the Wimberley storm in 2015.
During that devastating flood event, much of the region was already 2 to 4 inches above average for the month of May – our wettest month on average in Central Texas.
But right now, we are a little over an inch and a half below average for the month of May at Camp Mabry and the Austin airport. That means it is entirely possible that the flood threat will be mitigated because the ground in the Hill Country is not completely saturated.
In any case, flooding is possible in the same areas that saw flooding during the Memorial Day flood of 2015.
While we do not expect a similar situation to that flooding event nearly eight years ago, you should still stick with KVUE for the latest on our developing forecast.
In the meantime, your 7-day forecast is below:
